Oatly - Not Just For Vegans...For Investors

[weinoo]

EMP - goes vegan. 

Single Thread - opening a plant-based venture.

Guevara's - we know that story.

And...

 

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Private equity has a place at the table, and so do Oprah and Jay-Z. Food giants like Nestlé are scrambling to get a foot in the door. There are implications for the climate. There are even geopolitical rumblings.

 

The unlikely focus of this excitement is Oatly, producer of a milk substitute made from oats that can be poured on cereal or foamed for a cappuccino. Oatly, a Swedish company, will sell shares to the public for the first time this week in an offering that could value it at $10 billion and exemplify the changes in consumer preferences that are reshaping the food business.

 

 

And guess who is in on the act. Hint: It ain't just Oprah...

 

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 But the company is more than 25 years old and is backed by some serious money.

The majority shareholder is a partnership between an entity owned by the Chinese government and Verlinvest, a Belgian firm that invests some of the wealth of the families that control the Anheuser-Busch InBev beer empire. Blackstone, the giant private equity firm, owns a little less than 8 percent in Oatly.

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/business/oatly-ipo-milk-substitutes.html?action=click&module=In Other News&pgtype=Homepage

 

Oh - I forgot...

 

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Nestlé, the world’s biggest producer of packaged food, unveiled its own milk alternative this month, made from peas.

 

HELP!

Edited May 18, 2021 by weinoo (log)

[pastrygirl]

They sold $420 million last year and now value themselves as equal to the entire $10 billion global market?  That sounds insane. The market may be growing, but they'd have to utterly dominate all of the competition, which is considerable.

[heidih]

And fads are just that. Soy, then coconut, now oat...

[weinoo]

2 hours ago, pastrygirl said:

They sold $420 million last year and now value themselves as equal to the entire $10 billion global market?  That sounds insane. The market may be growing, but they'd have to utterly dominate all of the competition, which is considerable.

 

I don't know if it's what they value themselves at, or what investors value them at that's important.

[gfweb]

At least oats are tangible, not like bitcoins

[chromedome]

35 minutes ago, gfweb said:

At least oats are tangible, not like bitcoins

They're also pretty sustainable, relative to most of the alternatives.

[pastrygirl]

2 hours ago, weinoo said:

 

I don't know if it's what they value themselves at, or what investors value them at that's important.

Yeah I'm not clear on where the article got the 10 billion number.  Have you seen how many shares they are offering and at what price?  If Blackstone bought 8% for $200 million, isn't that a $2.5 billion valuation? 

 

I just think if they went onto Shark Tank asking for investment at a valuation of 20x sales they'd get laughed at.

 

edited to add:  share price expected to debut around $16 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3697153-hedgeye-oatly-could-be-next-chipotle-lululemon-or-under-armour-after-this-weeks-ipo

Edited May 18, 2021 by pastrygirl (log)

[weinoo]

Right - so in that article you link to, it reads...

 

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All told, OTLY expects to have about 592.1M shares outstanding after the IPO. That would value the firm at between $8.9B and $10.0B on a non-diluted basis, depending on where shares price in the expected $15-17 range.

 

 

[liuzhou]

Oatly is largely owned by a Chinese company controlled by the Chinese government.

https://supchina.com/2021/05/14/the-chinese-state-enterprise-behind-oatly/