Transit Strike & NYC Restaurants

[rich]

The NYC transit strike will certainly affect business, but will the restaurant industry be immune to the situation or will it hurt them more?

For people who live in Manhattan, I don't think it will have much of an affect for dinner. The city will be open and travel by cab or foot should be okay. However lunch will be hurt to some degree (though not major) because middle of the day traffic is greater so people will eat at places where they can walk.

The real impact will be weeknight dinner for places that rely on an outer borough and suburban clientele. The other major problem will be employees. It may be very difficult for employees who don't live in Manhattan to get back and forth to work. Restaurants may need to find inexpensive hotel rooms.

The strike won't have an affect on outer borough restaurants at all as very few Manhattanites venture into the other boroughs for food. And if they do it's a rare occasion.

Edited December 20, 2005 by rich (log)

[mikeycook]

Not to be a mercenary, but tonight sounds like a great night to call around some of the "hard to get into" places (like Per Se) and see if there is availability due to cancellation.

[sarahoc]

I'm working from home in Boerum Hill, Brooklyn (very hard, obviously). I'm planning on meeting some friends who live nearby for lunch somewhere on Smith Street.

But Rich, I think you are wrong about the strike not affecting outer borough restaurants. A lot of the workers rely on the bus andor subway to get to work, and deliveries can also be delayed because of traffic. Plus, a lot of the restaurants in my neighborhood ARE destination spots for people from Manhattan and other neighborhoods in Brooklyn.

Edited December 20, 2005 by sarahoc (log)

[donbert]

Morning deliveries (between 5 a.m. and 11 a.m) will be affected for places south of 96th as well, unless the delivery guys pick up 3 hitchhikers to get past the check points. The police were turning away a lot of commercial trucks/vans trying to make deliveries this morning.

[rich]

Morning deliveries (between 5 a.m. and 11 a.m) will be affected for places south of 96th as well, unless the delivery guys pick up 3 hitchhikers to get past the check points. The police were turning away a lot of commercial trucks/vans trying to make deliveries this morning.

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True, but I was told that restaurant delivery trucks are getting below 96th Street before 5am and once there, they're safe for the day.

[Fat Guy]

I imagine it will be similar in effect to a major blizzard: fewer staff will come in, fewer customers will come in, fewer deliveries will come in, less money will be made. What other possibility is there?

[Luckylies]

I think the prep cooks are going to have a hard time getting in. So mostly we'll be s.o.l for tonight (and lunch) as well as a bit slow for dinner, who knows though? perhaps we'll get neighborhood residents eating tonight. Also, I woor at a high end joint so, there's also the possibility that everybody with enough money for a cab will still be at dinner. My jobs in the time warner center so it will be interesting to see if the holiday feeding frenzy is slowing down...

[rich]

I imagine it will be similar in effect to a major blizzard: fewer staff will come in, fewer customers will come in, fewer deliveries will come in, less money will be made. What other possibility is there?

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Well Steve, there is another possibility. Businesses are talking about putting key employees in apartments and hotel rooms if the strike has any legs. It's just possible that with more people staying in Manhattan, restaurant business will improve.

Deliveries can be scheduled at off hours to beat the ban - Hunts Point is being very cooperative. I heard a report this morning that some restaurants are having deliveries sent down from the Bronx by boat.

Edited December 20, 2005 by rich (log)

[robert brown]

I imagine that neighborhood restaurants should do normal, if not above-normal, business. Tourist restaurants or higher-price restaurants in hard-to-get-to locations or in neighborhoods that are middle-to-lower-middle class would likely feel the pinch. I'm thinking of WD-50 or fancier places in Brooklyn.

[menton1]

Not to be a mercenary, but tonight sounds like a great night to call around some of the "hard to get into" places (like Per Se) and see if there is availability due to cancellation.

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It would be very surprising if it turned out that many Per Se patrons take public transportation...

[Fat Guy]

Businesses are talking about putting key employees in apartments and hotel rooms if the strike has any legs.

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I doubt many restaurants will do any such thing. What kinds of businesses were you hearing this about? I can see it being part of the contingency plan at Morgan Stanley for executives and their assistants, but are restaurants seriously talking about putting their bussers up in hotels?

[Fat Guy]

Not to be a mercenary, but tonight sounds like a great night to call around some of the "hard to get into" places (like Per Se) and see if there is availability due to cancellation.

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It would be very surprising if it turned out that many Per Se patrons take public transportation...

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I'm sure plenty of them do. Even billionaires know that if you're traveling from Wall Street to Columbus Circle at any time of day other than 4am the subway is the fastest way to get there. Of course, anybody who can afford to dine at Per Se can afford to get there by cab, but it's not entirely clear that all of them will want to brave the potential competition for limited transportation resources. I cancelled a trip to Connecticut today, not because I didn't think it was possible to get there but because I didn't want to invest the extra hours in traffic both ways and then come back to find no parking.

Take it from me, a guy who has written a book on this subject, today is a good day to get in almost anywhere as a pinch-diner for a cancellation or no-show.

[rich]

Businesses are talking about putting key employees in apartments and hotel rooms if the strike has any legs.

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I doubt many restaurants will do any such thing. What kinds of businesses were you hearing this about? I can see it being part of the contingency plan at Morgan Stanley for executives and their assistants, but are restaurants seriously talking about putting their bussers up in hotels?

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Sorry, I wasn't clear enough. Some upscale restaurants may consider taking rooms for mulitple key emloyees, but I was talking about other major businesses in NYC. Yes, the Morgan Stanleys of the world et al. That's why more people may be staying in Manhattan than normal and they need to eat somewhere.

A good friend is an executive for Con Ed and he, along with 15 other employees in his department, have rented some rooms in lower Manhattan. The plan has been in place for the last six weeks.

Edited December 20, 2005 by rich (log)

[Megan Blocker]

Not to be a mercenary, but tonight sounds like a great night to call around some of the "hard to get into" places (like Per Se) and see if there is availability due to cancellation.

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It would be very surprising if it turned out that many Per Se patrons take public transportation...

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It would also be surprising if they didn't have a hard time getting a taxi...

[johnder]

I think for the most part a one or two day strike will have a slight impact on the restaurants, but anything past that will have an exponential impact on them, mostly on restaurants in the city. I think there will be customers available -- the impact will be with staff and deliveries.

For the most part I would think restaurants would have enough staff within walking distance of their place to keep functioning. The bussers/dishwashers/porters may be another issue.

John

[Fat Guy]

The hotel occupancy rate is already extremely high this time of year, so the marginal increase isn't going to be huge. In any event, the vastly reduced number of commuters coming in to the city should be many times greater than the number of people added to the hotel population. Maybe you've got some information to the contrary, but I've never heard of a disruption that didn't affect the restaurant business negatively. The few people I've spoken to who remember the 1980 strike remember it being pretty bad for restaurants, and for almost all businesses.

[Vadouvan]

I already know two people who were flying in from London for a week who rescheduled flights today until strike is settled.

We do have a fabulous town but who wants to walk around back and forth in 2o degree weather.

If the strike lasts till thursday, New york is screwed.

Restaurants will over order, purveyors will raise prices ever so slightly...lots of cumulative effect of increased traffic.

the only restaurants that are going to put any employees in hotels are those that are in or affiliated with hotels.........and even that may be a stretch

[Eatmywords]

I live right next to the Time Warner building. If Masa and/or Keller need a place to stay tonight I'd be willing to trade them a queen size air-mattress for a 12 course tasting. Let's see, my book looks clear for Masa on Friday and Per Se on Saturday. Can someone let them know? (Oh, and would pairings be asking too much?....nah)

[rich]

The hotel occupancy rate is already extremely high this time of year, so the marginal increase isn't going to be huge. In any event, the vastly reduced number of commuters coming in to the city should be many times greater than the number of people added to the hotel population. Maybe you've got some information to the contrary, but I've never heard of a disruption that didn't affect the restaurant business negatively. The few people I've spoken to who remember the 1980 strike remember it being pretty bad for restaurants, and for almost all businesses.

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I remember the 1980 strike very well - I worked on 49th and 6 Ave. Walked from the Staten Island Ferry both ways. Yes, that was very bad for restaurants specificallly because it was an 11-day strike. And I think if this strike goes beyond a few days, it too will have a negative impact, but in the short term it could prove beneficial to some restaurants.

I don't have any data to support that, I'm throwing it out as a possibility based on the human nature aspect. Right now, especially those who don't remember 1980, a number of people are treating this as an adventure. And getting around has become a challenge. So there is a possibility, albeit unlikely, that some restaurants may benefit for the first few days. When the adventure gets tiresome, and it will in a hurry, that's when the major impact will occur. At least that's my take on it.

Edited December 20, 2005 by rich (log)

[robert40]

Articles on this very subject are arising already.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=aFt3QM4_X7cU

[Nathan]

my law firm (and numerous others) are putting partners (those who live in Westchester and the like) up in hotel rooms...we may have done so for critical support staff as well..I'm not sure...but I imagine enough law and financial firms are doing this that there simply can't be any excess hotel capacity.

But I think that will generally help room service, hotel restaurants and even diners down the block more than most restaurants.

I did discover that south-north/north-south cabs are easy to get so more centrally located restaurants may do alright...

[JohnnyH]

Businesses are talking about putting key employees in apartments and hotel rooms if the strike has any legs.

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I doubt many restaurants will do any such thing. What kinds of businesses were you hearing this about? I can see it being part of the contingency plan at Morgan Stanley for executives and their assistants, but are restaurants seriously talking about putting their bussers up in hotels?

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I think he meant that the hotel-bound employees would be potentially additional diners at said restaurants, not that the restaurant employees would themselves be put up in hotels.

[mikeycook]

Not exactly sure what's going on with cabs in the city today. I saw a lot of cabs with their lights indicating occupancy, but they all had people in them. Either all of the cabs are coming from JFK today or there is some selective passenger pickup happening today (perhaps with some gouging?)

Does anyone know if special rules are in effect for cabs operating in the citry today?

[johnder]

Does anyone know if special rules are in effect for cabs operating in the citry today?

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The cabs are operating on zones. They aren't running off the meter, hence their lights being on. Here are the zones. (PDF Warning)

[oakapple]

Based on what I've seen around town, as well as my own place of employment, FG's instincts seem to be correct. There were fewer people on the sidewalks this morning than usual and less traffic on the streets. At work, people who could avoid coming into the city have done so. A training course that involved an instructor traveling from out-of-town has been canceled. Our office holiday party, which was to have taken place tonight at a restaurant, has been postponed.

Edited December 20, 2005 by oakapple (log)