Guide Michelin comes to NY

[insanityrules]

The michelin rating system sucks! Just look at restaurant Paul Bocuse or Roger Verget, definitely not worth a michelin star. They should keep their snobby paws out of the us. They were the word in fine dining, the us is changing the very meaning of fine dining.

[Pan]

insanityrules, which other guide do you like better than Michelin, and why? Also, what part of their snobbiness bothers you? Consider that a "democratic" system might rate TGIF highly.

[bloviatrix]

Based on Sam's graph I would have to infer that New York is the Lake Wobegon of restaurants -- they're all above average.

[insanityrules]

insanityrules, which other guide do you like better than Michelin, and why? Also, what part of their snobbiness bothers you? Consider that a "democratic" system might rate TGIF highly.

There should be no guides, only information about the restaurant. The most reliable source is word of mouth and next to that egullet. Its that simple, average meal price and description of restaurant. How can a restaurant like el bulli and ducasse paris even be mentioned in the same sentence?????????

[oakapple]

There should be no guides, only information about the restaurant. The most reliable source is word of mouth and next to that egullet. Its that simple, average meal price and description of restaurant.

As much as I've come to appreciate eGullet, only a miniscule fraction of diners even know about it. It is also spotty in its coverage, and very difficult to search. (These limitations are inherent to the bulletin board format, not any fault of the good folks who organize eGullet.)

Word of mouth is great when you happen to know a lot of people who dine out. Not everybody does.

Lastly, any publication that presents "information about the restaurant, average meal price and description of restaurant" is a guide, is it not?

[Explorer]

Bux,

Re:

Has a chef ever committed suicide after losing a star as he says? Surely he's not referring to Loiseau who took his life after learning that he had not lost a star.

The article referred to what happened in France:

"I've never heard of a chef going into a deep depression — or killing himself — after losing a star, as has happened after Michelin demotions in France."

[slkinsey]

Based on Sam's graph I would have to infer that New York is the Lake Wobegon of restaurants -- they're all above average.

Seriously, though, this graph demonstrates two effects:

1. The "Zagat effect" -- whereby people are much more likely to send in ratings cards for places of which they are personally fond, which necessarily leads to higher overall ratings.

2. "Grade inflation" -- the same problem we are having in our elite universities, whereby a "C" grade is seen as a negative evaluation rather than as "par for the course."

The fact that they rate on a 0-to-3 scale only exacerbates these two effect. It is well understood by psyshologists that most people are always reluctant to assign anyone a "0 rating" or whatever may be the lowest possible grade on a subjective scale. There should be some statistical weighting of the results to account for this fact.

Furthermore, it is actually impossible to give a restaurant an "average" grade, which would be a 1.5 on a 0-to-3 scale. So, diners are forced to choose between "above average" (a "2 rating") or "below average" (a "1 rating"). The psychology whereby most things are rated as "above average" is also well understood (ever meet someone who described themself or their children as having "average intelligence?"), and so it is no surprise that a "2 rating" becomes the de facto "average score." This should also be accounted for with statistical weighting.

From a psychological and statistical standpoint, there are also probably some interesting things to be said about the anomalous bump at the high end of the curve.

[oakapple]

The fact that they rate on a 0-to-3 scale only exacerbates these two effect. It is well understood by psyshologists that most people are always reluctant to assign anyone a "0 rating" or whatever may be the lowest possible grade on a subjective scale.

I've studied the Zagat NY ratings distributions a little more since posting yesterday, and there is an additional curiosity. I pointed out that 97% of NY restaurants have a Zagat food rating of 16 or higher, 75% are rated in the narrow band from 18-23, and none are rated worse than 9.

However, in the Zagat décor ratings, just 62% are rated 16 or higher, and just 36% are in the 18-23 range. There are actually 25 restaurants with Zagat décor ratings worse than 9, including one rated a 2. This tells us that, when it comes to décor, Zagat voters are considerably more willing to assign below-average ratings. I suspect it's because the distinction between good and bad food is awfully difficult to quantify, but most people know a physically ugly space when they see it.

In case you were wondering, about 80% of Zagat's service ratings are 16 or higher, and 54% are in the 18-23 range. Just two restaurants have a service rating worse than 9. So Zagat voters are the most discriminating about décor, a bit less discriminating about service, and the least discriminating about the thing that should matter most - the food.

Again, these are just the New York ratings, although I shouldn't be surprised to find that the same anomalies exist everywhere Zagat operates.

From a psychological and statistical standpoint, there are also probably some interesting things to be said about the anomalous bump at the high end of the curve.

It could be just statistical "noise," or it may be another manifestation of the fact that people are far more likely to vote for restaurants they like. (Another way of looking at it, is that people don't want to admit to themselves that they've wasted their time and money at bad restaurants. I suppose "cognitive dissonance" would be the psychological term for this.)

[Fat Guy]

Zagat doesn't rate every restaurant in New York. The ones that are below average don't typically make it into the book.

[oakapple]

Zagat doesn't rate every restaurant in New York. The ones that are below average don't typically make it into the book.

Neither does the New York Times, and neither does Michelin. Nevertheless, in whatever population a publication chooses to cover, there needs to be some differentiation, or the ratings aren't very meaningful.

Zagat does list such places as Gray's Papaya (food rating = 20), Hard Rock Cafe (12), White Horse Tavern (13), Hale and Hearty Soups (20), Starbucks (13), Burger Heaven (16), Baluchi's (18), and Dallas BBQ (14).

[slkinsey]

It's interesting to look at the curve when interpreting those ratings. Assuming a standard deviation of 2 around a mean rating of 20, places like Hard Rock Cafe (12), White Horse Tavern (13), Starbucks (13), and Dallas BBQ (14) are 3 SDs or more from the mean. Since 99% of the data points on a normal distribution of data lie within 3 SDs or less, the ratings above mean that they are among the worst places in the City. In the case of Dallas BBQ, my personal experience says that it's an earned rating.

Note, however, that for someone who hasn't seen the curve (and/or who doesn't understand standard deviations), those ratings don't look all that bad.

[Bux]

Bux,

Re:

Has a chef ever committed suicide after losing a star as he says? Surely he's not referring to Loiseau who took his life after learning that he had not lost a star.

The article referred to what happened in France:

"I've never heard of a chef going into a deep depression — or killing himself — after losing a star, as has happened after Michelin demotions in France."

Yes of course in France. I was referring to France. I could rephrase my question and comment as: "Has a chef ever committed suicide in France after losing a star as he says? Surely he's not referring to Loiseau, of the Hôtel de la Côte d'Or in Saulieu, France, who took his life amid rumors that he might be losing a star, but only after learning that he had not lost a star." As I recall, one of the reasons Michelin released an early report on the starred restaurants was precisely because so many rumors were flying around.

I understand he was referring to France, but just because he said it happened, it doesn't mean it has. Just because I questioned him, doesn't mean he's wrong, but so many people have repeated rumors and untruths about Michelin stars and one of them has been that Loiseau comitted suicide after learning he lost a star. That rumor was picked up by news services immediately and spread faster and further than the retractions that followed, as I recall.

[Pan]

insanityrules, which other guide do you like better than Michelin, and why? Also, what part of their snobbiness bothers you? Consider that a "democratic" system might rate TGIF highly.

There should be no guides, only information about the restaurant.

And perhaps there should be no tourism or hotel guides, either. And maybe newspapers are unnecessary because it would be better to find everything out by personally travelling to wherever things happen and interviewing people oneself. But that's not the world we live in. Guides, newspapers, and other references sell because a large number of customers finds the information they present useful, though you are not among that segment.

[swingers]

Admin: threads merged

Hi, Did you heard about the news that Guide Michelin will do a Guide Michelin in New-York ?

Cheers

[docsconz]

I'm sure we will find plenty to discuss when it comes out. Any idea of proposed publication date?

[ChefGEB]

I hear they are looking at doing one for Chicago as well as one for San Francisco. Jean Luc Naret, the new head of the Guide, ate at Avenues, Tru and Charlie Trotters upon a recent visit to The Windy City. Mr. Naret seems to believe that what matters most in a restaurant is whats on the plate, and less so to do with the million dollar flower arrangements of the past. That said, I would not be suprised if their American guide is quite different in its approach to reviewing restaurants.

ChefGEB

www.gebowles.com

[Joshua Graff]

The May 10th issue of New York reports that Michelin is crossing the Atlantic and that their first New York guide will be available in 2006.

French Invasion

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Greetings, I would like to know if they will be looking to visit restaurants in upstate New York. The only rating better that Michelin is Relais Gourmand at least in my line of work.

[silentryan]

Times talks about the upcoming guide: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/23/dining/23guid.html

One quote I found interesting: 'With that in mind Jean-Luc Naret, the director of the Michelin guides, said that in France three stars have come to mean a certain level of luxury, but he is hoping to change that perception. "The stars refer only to what is on the plate," he said. "There is no French barometer when it comes to evaluating restaurants.""

[bilrus]

According to USA Today at least one NY restaurant will be receiving ***.

[R Washburn]

ADNY? I don't know if the inspectors could have already managed 10 visits to Per Se.

[Fat Guy]

ADNY already has three stars!

[bilrus]

ADNY?  I don't know if the inspectors could have already managed 10 visits to Per Se.

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Wouldn't that be ironic?

[chopjwu12]

if any get three stars and im not to sure even one will. But if any its got to be per se. Its set up perfectly for the criteria of a michelan restaurant. Adny i dont think will given there recent demotion jg not a chance, bouley nope, le bernarden i dont think so either but who knows we are all going to have to wait until it come out.

[milla]

actually, ADNY is set up perfectly in terms of criteria with their single seating policy and luxury at every facet of the experience. Keep in mind also that Michelin has a history of frowning on multi-establishment chefs, witnessing the demotion/promotion of Ducasse Louis XVI on relocation of ADPA and the opening of ADNY. I bring this to light with regard to T Keller. Will michelin give him 3 in NY followed by 3 at FL in the Bay Area guide the following year? I am willing to bet against that. I am also willing to bet it will be Ducasse IF there is actually a *** the first year of the guide. Don't count on that though...

if any get three stars and im not to sure even one will. But if any its got to be per se. Its set up perfectly for the criteria of a michelan restaurant. Adny i dont think will given there recent demotion jg not a chance, bouley nope, le bernarden i dont think so either but who knows we are all going to have to wait until it come out.

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[IML]

AD/NY and Per Se are shoe-ins, while the rest are fodder.

Edited February 26, 2005 by IML (log)