TDG: SARS -- A Plea for Logic

[Simon Majumdar]

I am heading for Toronto in a few days. The client I am visiting is taking me for lunch and has, as a matter of course been frequenting Chinatown for the last few weeks. He asked me

a) If I was going to cancel my visit

b) If minded joining him for Dim Sum

The answer is a resounding NO to both questions.

I can see no reason to cancel my trip nor to pass up to eat some of the best chinese food in North America

The question as to whether the US government will let me back into the US afterwards is the real one, but that may have nothing to do with SARS

S

[Jonathan Day]

According to BBC radio reports today, London's Chinese restaurants have experienced a serious drop in business owing to SARS fears.

[Simon Majumdar]

According to BBC radio reports today, London's Chinese restaurants have experienced a serious drop in business owing to SARS fears.

Just why I plan to have Dim Sum tomorrow

S

[docsconz]

In my mind, even in the areas currently effected, the virulence and morbidity (or lack thereof) do not merit the hysteria that the media seems to be stirring up.

In this statement I believe you are very wrong. The dangers from SARS are very real. Mortality statistics for SARS are increasing towards 10%. That may not seem like much, but it most definately is, with otherwise healthy people succumbing to the disease. It is actually of significantly more concern than an organism that is much more deadly such as Ebola virus. Ebola works quickly and is almost certain death. While that is not good if you happen to be around ebola, the likelihood of being around it is much less. Since it is so efficient in wiping out its host it generally doesn't get to travel very far. SARS obviously does. In addition, it appears that at this time there may be at least several different strains of SARS virus with differing degrees of virulence. Hong Kong and Toronto appear to have been victims of a more virulent strain that so far seems to have avoided the U.S.

Taking SARS very seriously does not mean that there is any evidence for avoiding anyplace simply because of the predominent ethnicity of the place. One does not get SARS from eating chinese or vietnamese or canadien food. A coughing and sick waiter or cook is not a good thing no matter the illness or the cuisine. Basic common sense public health rules should be reinforced for all restaurants. Everyone should be vigilant, but not phobic.

Simon, while the likelihood of your contracting SARS by going to Toronto is statistically low, be aware that you will be at higher risk than if you do not go. Be prepared to seek help quickly and or quarantine yourself if you do wind up coming down with symptoms either during or after your trip.

[Marlene]

I've sent this to the Toronto Newspapers as well as to the Ontario Restaurant Association.

[maggiethecat]

I've sent this to the Toronto Newspapers as well as to the Ontario Restaurant Association.

That's wonderful, Marlene. Really.

[Marlene]

Thanks Maggie. I may send it to the local newspapers here as well.

[Fat Guy]

Everyone should be vigilant, but not phobic.

Bingo.

[macrosan]

I just read in The Sunday Times that some insurance companies in the UK ahve announced that they will not pay for healthcare resulting from contracting SARS in the WHO "listed" cities and countries. I have never had much time for the insurance industry, but this is just mind-blowing.

At the same time, they also say they won't pay out for cancellation fees if people simply decide not to go to "unlisted" places. They're terrific at collecting premiums, it seems, but not so keen to take any risk of having to pay out.

I am just shcoked and angry.

[Fat Guy]

The article is:

April 26, 2003

Insurers warn of bills

By Sam Lister

Relevant quotation: "TRAVELLERS who contract Sars while visiting China, Hong Kong and Toronto will not have hospital treatment covered by their insurance policies, insurers have warned."

I'm having trouble navigating the Times site in such a way as to provide a link, but if you search by title on http://www.timesonline.co.uk/ the article will come up.

A travel advisory is of course quite different than refusal to eat at a certain ethnicity of restaurant. If the WHO is saying don't go someplace, that is a serious statement -- it should not be obeyed religiously, but it should be considered seriously. If people are saying don't eat at Chinese restaurants, however, that is just a crazy statement.

[pixelchef]

I'm forwarding it to the university/college campuses in Ontario for release in their subsequent "newspapers" as well as all the local news publications I can muster in Ontario (Oshawa This Week, Whitby This Week, etc.. etc..). Marlene already nabbed the big Toronto papers (thanks Marlene).

Simon: Lai Wah Heen? You'd better say yes. :)

Edited April 26, 2003 by pixelchef (log)

[docsconz]

A travel advisory is of course quite different than refusal to eat at a certain ethnicity of restaurant. If the WHO is saying don't go someplace, that is a serious statement -- it should not be obeyed religiously, but it should be considered seriously. If people are saying don't eat at Chinese restaurants, however, that is just a crazy statement.

I believe you hit the nail on the head.

[=Mark]

In my mind, even in the areas currently effected, the virulence and morbidity (or lack thereof) do not merit the hysteria that the media seems to be stirring up.

In this statement I believe you are very wrong. The dangers from SARS are very real. Mortality statistics for SARS are increasing towards 10%.

All the numbers I am seeing, including China, Canada and Vietnam (Which seems to have stopped the spread, no new cases in 2 incubation periods) seem to round off at a bit less than 5% mortality. While still significant (Twice the mortality of influenza) I still feel the coverage is resulting in unnessesary hysteria in the general public. At least the media has not reached the duct tape and plastic stage as of yet.

[docsconz]

In my mind, even in the areas currently effected, the virulence and morbidity (or lack thereof) do not merit the hysteria that the media seems to be stirring up.

In this statement I believe you are very wrong. The dangers from SARS are very real. Mortality statistics for SARS are increasing towards 10%.

All the numbers I am seeing, including China, Canada and Vietnam (Which seems to have stopped the spread, no new cases in 2 incubation periods) seem to round off at a bit less than 5% mortality. While still significant (Twice the mortality of influenza) I still feel the coverage is resulting in unnessesary hysteria in the general public. At least the media has not reached the duct tape and plastic stage as of yet.

Mark,

The latest figures from the WHO show a mortality of 12.7% in Canada, 7.9% in Hong Kong and 10.6% in Singapore. These are the areas where the most virulent forms of the disease have spread to. The mortality statistics in these locations are on an upward trend. The problem is that if this is not contained (and it may be too late for that), the number of cases will begin to increase exponentially. If it does increase, hopefully it will be the less virulent form.

While it is true that we should not panic and we should not over-react, it is just as true that we should not underestimate the real danger and significance of this.

[Simon Majumdar]

Simon: Lai Wah Heen?  You'd better say yes. :)

Damn straight

S

[SWoodyWhite]

My life-partner remembered and located the following from the LA Times:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-sa...1,3910245.story

What is amazing and shameful is that, with (at the time the piece was written) only nine cases of SARS in Los Angeles County, and zero fatalities, these rumors have had such a negative impact on an entire community.

Of course, how statistics are reported can have an impact, as well. I'm certain that when docsconz wrote:

The latest figures from the WHO show a mortality of 12.7% in Canada, 7.9% in Hong Kong and 10.6% in Singapore.

that he assumed we would understand he intended those numbers as the mortality percentage of those infected, not the mortality percentage of all those living in those areas. Unfortunately, there are people who either can't or don't understand what the numbers really refer to, and thus jump to poor conclusions.

[Ruth]

We have eaten at three Chinatown restaurants recently - all restaurants that normally rely upon a preponderance of Chinese clients and all of which were half empty. I am afraid that the Chinese themselves, who tend to panic easily, are largely responsible for the current problem, and I fail to see that we can have much influence there. I have Chinese friends who categorically refuse to go to Chinatown or to any predominantly Asian part of NYC or any other city until the SARS epidemic disappears. Yet my own son who lives in Shanghai (minimally affected to date) refuses, somewhat to my consternation, to be dissuaded from his frequent trips to Hong Kong.

As far as the French restaurants are concerned, I think we should remind each other that many of the French-born chefs and restaurateurs are just as American as any citizen (myself included) who was not born in the US. It is disgraceful to try to harm these people who have provided us with so much real pleaure and played such an important role in helping to make New York a culinary capital.

Edited April 27, 2003 by Ruth (log)

[Fat Guy]

My contact at the Canadian Tourism Commission just sent me a press release on SARS, and it contains a couple of important paragraphs worth quoting here:

Please be advised in your news reporting of SARS as it relates to Canada, it is important to clarify that the World Health Organization's travel advisory is specific to the city of Toronto, not the country of Canada. Canada is the second largest country in the world, comprising 10 provinces and three territories, and spanning six time zones, with a land mass totaling more than 3.8 million sq. miles.

As of April 24, 2003, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is NOT inlcluding Toronto in the list of destinations where travel restrictions are necessary.

In addition, the canadatourism.com site makes the following points:

Canada and Ontario continue to be safe travel destinations. While there have been cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the Canadian government and its partners are committed to ensuring the health and safety of travellers to and from Canada.

. . . .

The U.S.'s CDC has assessed the situation in Canada and has stated that: "Currently, all cases in Toronto are linked to Toronto's original index case and spread has been through person-to-person contact. SARS transmission in Toronto has been limited to a small number of hospitals, households, and specific community settings."

There is no evidence of any casual transmission of SARS in Toronto. Every case can be linked back to the original index case.

[anil]

Fri-Sun: We had three of our six meals in Chinatown - downtown, crowded and lively as usual.

[Marlene]

The WHO has just announced that the travel ban to Toronto will be lifted Toronto. This is good news for a city who's economy is reeling both from the outbreak and from the advisory.

GordonCooks, Pixelchef and other GTA egulleters, I think it's time to organize a Toronto E-Gullet dining adventure!

[tsquare]

Quick trip into Seattle's International District today. Took the bus, walked around, bought tea and Pockys (didn't see any Pocky G's) at Uwajimaya, bbq pork and rice from King's, and was pleasantly surprised by how calm the area felt. No masks, schoolkids from the 'burbs on field trips, shoppers...first I travel during the war, and now I go to Chinatown during the scare...what an activist!

[torakris]

Quick trip into Seattle's International District today. Took the bus, walked around, bought tea and Pockys (didn't see any Pocky G's) at Uwajimaya, bbq pork and rice from King's, and was pleasantly surprised by how calm the area felt. No masks, schoolkids from the 'burbs on field trips, shoppers...first I travel during the war, and now I go to Chinatown during the scare...what an activist!

looking for pocky G?

check the bottom of this thread:

http://forums.egullet.org/index.php?act=ST...9212&hl=pocky+g

[jhlurie]

Is it just me, or is this picture kind of freaky?

Here is the accompanying article., including yet more shots of people in Hong Kong walking around in surgical masks.

[mogsob]

According to BBC radio reports today, London's Chinese restaurants have experienced a serious drop in business owing to SARS fears.

You know, it never occurred to me that I could protect myself from SARS by avoiding Chinese food and Chinatown in general. Silly me. Here I thought that avoiding being coughed-upon by a feverish person in a province outside of Shanghai would be sufficient, given the rate of infection and the means of contamination.

[Elissa]

WHO endorses rational caution, here today in the NY Times

Only one probable case of SARS has been reported in this country in the last 15 days