How to judge young wines and predict development?

[Dan C.]

I'm curious to know how one would judge a new release and predict how well it will develop?

I've read reviews where an "optimum to drink" year is listed and how certain elements present in the young wine will develop in a number of years. What sort of observations should I be making with a young bottle in order to determine whether it's worth putting away in the cellar? Are there any factors that develops predictably as wines age?

[jrussell]

Are there any factors that develops predictably as wines age?

Yes and no. The best way to learn about aging wine is to try it -- buy a half-case or case of some wines (can be inexpensive while you're learning about it) and open one periodically, watching as and how it evolves. As you notice what changes, you'll start to figure out what to look for when the wine is first released. And seek out opportunities to taste verticals of wine -- newer and older vintages of the same wine, which can give you some clues (of course, some years produce longer-aging structures of the same wines than others).

But keep in mind that even the most experienced critics' and winemakers' predicted drinking windows can be (often are) way, way off, in both directions. It's all guesswork, some more educated than others, and complicated further by the fact that tastes vary widely (just because a wine can age doesn't mean you'll like the aged version more - another reason to experiment on your own). And, increasingly, wines are being made to be drunk younger to satisfy those who lack the time/patience/money/etc to age wines.

In general, 'balance' would be a key criteria for age worthiness, though that's obviously a slippery concept. Tannins (especially for red wines) and acidity have a lot to do with a wine's ability to age, and balance often has to do with the interplay between those. People suggesting drinking windows are usually combining some general knowledge of how that wine has done in the past (e.g., is it a varietal that ages well, does that particular bottling have a history of aging) with an assessment of the particular bottling's balance, ripeness and fruit sufficient to hold up to aging, and enough tannin and acidity to give the wine structure in years to come. And a fair amount of guessing and luck...

Hope that helps a bit. Jancis Robinson's books are a good place to start if you want to read more about aging wine (her Oxford Companion to wine has some entries on aging that talk a bit about the science behind it as well).