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Estimating time to come to a temperature


Virbonus

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My specific question is: does anyone have a way to approximate how long it would take a 16 pound ham to go from an internal temperature of 36 degrees F to an internal temperature of 155 when cooked in a 200 degree smoker? More generally does anyone have a way to estimate how long it takes to raise 1 pound of meat one degree in an oven as a function of the type of meat, the initial temperature, and the oven temperature?

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You're not going to find any definitive answer to your question. There are so many variables it's impossible to give even a good approximation. Some of the variables are the humidity of the air, how much moisture the meat contains and how much fat is in the meat but there are certainly others. It's even worse when you're cooking pork for pulling because there's actually a temperature stall during the cooking cycle.

It's easier to estimate when you're cooking at higher temperatures because the effects of the variables is greatly reduced.

I've learned that artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

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I suspect you're right, but, is this not basically a physics problem? And if we weren't talking about a ham, but rather something scientifically important wouldn't there be an effort made to answer it?

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I suspect you're right, but, is this not basically a physics problem? And if we weren't talking about a ham, but rather something scientifically important wouldn't there be an effort made to answer it?

Yes, you are right that it is basically a physics problem. The theory behind it is well understood. The heat equation is the usual starting point for solving problems like this. But of course the devil is in the details, especially, but not exclusively, the boundary conditions that explain what is going on at the surface in terms of heat transfer to or from the surrounding environment.

Another angle you should bear in mind is that for most cooking methods there is not a single uniform internal temperature when the food is done. The surface of a large piece of cooked food is almost always hotter than the very center, in some cases by a lot. Sous-vide cooking is one of the few methods that avoids this problem, which is one of its advantages.

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MadVal, Seattle, WA

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I'm sure I'm not the first person to think of this question, and, upon reflection, it's also a function of the topography of the ham. So, I reckon I'll just have to stick the sucker with a digital probe, set a temperature alert, crack open a cold one, and just like all cavemen before me and wait till it's done. But it's still got a week to brine, so I'm not in any rush. Thanks.

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